Jim Hines predictions for the Hugo’s

As usual mine in italics. OP in normal font.

Hugo voting closed a week or so back, and in another two weeks, the winners will be announced atSasquan. After said announcements, social media will explode with commentary, congratulations, criticism, and chest-thumping. I figured I’d get my post-Hugo blogging done before the Hugos are actually announced, and thus beat the crowd. (Feel free to check back later and see how close I was with my predictions, or mock me for being completely off-base.)

Yeah but doesn’t that come with blogging as a popular writer  *shrugs*

Hugo Award Logo1. Congrats to David Gerrold and Tananarive Due for a wonderful job hosting the Hugo award ceremony!

Some of the puppies were complaining that the hosts would use their platform to take shots at the Sad and Rabid Puppies and their works. I’m glad (and utterly unsurprised) to see those fears were nothing but paranoia, and perhaps wishful thinking on the part of those trying a little too hard to portray themselves as victims. Gerrold and Due both care a great deal about the Hugos, the genre, and the community, and that showed. Thank you both for your professionalism on stage after a very challenging lead-up.

David has been a complete ASS about the Hugos this year from the beginning.  I think he got tired of me contradicting him and disagreeing with him because he blocked me from his page. Can’t even see it anymore when I search for it. So forgive me for being HIGHLY doubtful about this prediction

2. At least three puppy nominees won Hugo awards.

Congratulations to the winners, including those who were on the puppy slates. While most of the puppy nominees failed to take home a rocket, I imagine there will be at least three. I’m predicting one will go to my own editor, Sheila Gilbert, who’s made the ballot on her own in previous years, and is (in my biased opinion) utterly deserving of the award. I’m not as sure who the second will be, but I’m guessing Kary English in the short story category. One of the movies on the puppy ballots will also win. Finally, I think there’s a good shot of either Resnick or Brozek taking home a short-form editor Hugo.

Piffle.  What about 3 Body Problem? Will that be one of the puppy ones ya think?  As to the rest? We shall see, we shall see. I haven’t paid much attention but wasn’t Guardians of the Galaxy one of the ones on the movie list boys and girls? If so…I suspect it’ll take home the movies category. It’s just too much fun.

3. At least one category went to No Award.

No Award didn’t sweep the ballot like some people hoped/feared. It did take the Novella category, though. I think it will probably take Best Related Work as well.

Ya think?  I’m gonna go out on a limb and say…3 total   But why Novella and I’m hoping it doesn’t wipe out the best fan author category there’s some good ones in there and one or two of them are friends of mine.

4. A number of puppies came in below No Award in the voting.

Once the Hugo Awards have been announced, the next step is to pore over the voting numbers. Vox Day and John C. Wright had the most dramatic losses, but they weren’t alone in scoring behind No Award. Michael Williamson’s related work also took a drubbing from No Award. (On a related note, I believe John C. Wright is now the first person ever to be nominated for six Hugo awards, as well as the first person to lose or be disqualified in all six.)

Some people will point to this as evidence that Hugo voters don’t like slate-voting, and/or proof of the low quality of much of the puppy-nommed work. Others will point to it as proof that the SJW cabal still runs the Hugos, and worked to keep the Wrong People out.

And why shall this be Jim? Why shall this be? Could it POSSIBLY be because the anti puppies went on a rabid character assassination campaign?  Noooooo couldn’t possibly be could it?

5. The non-puppy nominees did quite well.

Congrats in particular to Cixin Liu and Ken Liu in the Best Novel category for The Three-Body Problem, which narrowly beat out Ancillary Sword and The Goblin Emperor.

Uhhh Jim? 3 body problem WAS  a SAD puppy nominee.  Can’t remember if it was on the Rabid list or not.

6. Various puppies immediately ran to the internet to declare victory.

This was an easy prediction, since a number of folks have been declaring victory for weeks or months now. Because losing the Hugos proves their point that the game is rigged against them! Winning the Hugos proves their point that people really want to read their kind of stories. No Award is what they wanted all along, because it’s actually about destroying the Hugo awards.

In addition to these old and surprisingly mobile goal posts, there will also be crowing about who was kept off the final ballot by the puppy slates, because it’s actually about rocket-blocking those evil SJWs.

Yep yep it does prove that some people want to keep the voting pool SMALL and….what’s the word I’m looking for here? ……..
Got it!  Some people want to keep the voting pool small and mono cultured as far as how anyone who votes, politically or culturally aligns themselves  See that’s been one of the cores of the puppy campaign since it’s inception. Proven time and time again by the reaction to it.

7. Wesley Chu took home the Campbell Award.

It’s not technically a Hugo award, but it’s presented at the ceremony, and I think Wes is going to be rocking that tiara.

*shrug* could honestly care less about this one. You could be correct, you could be off base. the final tallies will tell

8. The Puppies will return for at least one more year, but they won’t have the same impact.

Given the amount of attention it brought him, I have little doubt that Theodore Beale will launch Rabid Puppies 2016 and try to repeat this year’s performance. The Sad Puppies have chosen their spokesperson for 2016 as well, but after the backlash they received this year, I expect the sad side to start to quietly move on. So we’ll have at least another year of puppy slates, and they’ll probably get some nominees on the ballot again, but it won’t be a repeat of 2015.

Yes the puppies will and they have chosen their spokesperson. SpokesWOMAN actually. I can’t wait to see what she turns out for this coming years campaign.   Ought to be a lot of fun, also interesting.   As far as not being a repeat of 2015?  I suspect your wrong on that one. But again..we shall see

9. Someone will try to run a counterslate in 2016. It will fail.

Slates and counterslates are, in my opinion, a really bad idea. That won’t stop someone, somewhere from trying to run an anti-puppy slate. But it will be condemned pretty broadly, and won’t get any real traction.

Yes but who will do this?  Some of the same folks who’ve shot themselves in the foot and the ass THIS year? Nooo…doubtful. At least not openly. Several of them are people who have actively pissed off the heads of their parent company so I don’t think they’ll be THAT stupid again this coming year. 

10. Fandom and the Hugos survived.

This year did not break the Hugos. It did not destroy fandom or the genre. It did expose a lot of anger and emotion, and led to tens of thousands of hours of lost productivity for people trying to read every last update and/or respond to every comment. Because no matter what “side” you’re on, at least we can all agree that 20th Century Fox really needs to stop trying to make Fantastic Four movies.

It’s BEEN broken…that’s been one of the points of the campaign. Frankly I find whether a book or author has won an award or not completely non helpful as to whether I want to read it.    You’re right on one thing in this part though for sure. 20th Century Fox REALLY needs to stop rebooting shit. Stop “rebooting” you boneheads and make some original fucking films! It’s not like there’s not thousands upon thousands of good books out there begging to be made into quality films. Sigh…OTOH anything that tends to make the transition from book to film…tends to get fucked up to a fare thee well in the translation. 

Bonus Prediction: If I’m right about some or most of these, some dumbass will point to it as proof I’m part of the SJW cabal rigging the results ahead of time.

What? Wait? you mean…you’re not?  Hmmm I might be willing to give you that one. Despite your anti puppy tendencies.

3 thoughts on “Jim Hines predictions for the Hugo’s

  1. ThomasW says:

    Umm. The Three Body Problem was not on the Puppy slate (either one). It was added when Marco Kloos withdrew Lines of Departure.

  2. Pingback: The Hugos. Jim Hines predictions…The aftermath. | Rants, Raves and Diatribes

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